Election Special: Who will win 2019?

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With an upswing of about 4 per cent in vote share, as reported in newest polls/surveys, can the Congress tide over its lowest ebb (44 MPs throughout the 16th Lok Sabha) and dethrone the incumbent? Possibly a deep dive into two latest surveys — CSDS-Lokniti and Cases Now-VMR — will serve the intention.

The first votes throughout the 2019 Lok Sabha elections will in all probability be polled on April 11. Every the principal occasions — the BJP and the Congress — are moving into into the ultimate elections with a attainable 4 share stage enhance of their vote shares. Nonetheless, as per CSDS-Lokniti pre poll survey, this enhance throughout the BJP’s vote share appears to be largely on the value of the non-United Progressive Alliance (UPA) occasions. Thereby, this enhance vote share is unlikely to fetch further seats for the BJP.

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Does that suggest the GOP, like they usurped the reins in 2004 widespread elections from the favored Atal Bihari Vajpayee Authorities, will type the union authorities with its alliance companions in 2019? Consistent with Sanjay Kumar, director CSDS, 2004 and 2019 widespread elections cannot be in distinction as a result of the voter base for the Congress get collectively between the two elections are remarkably completely totally different.

“2004 and 2019 not comparable. The assistance base are completely totally different. Sooner than 2004 Elections Cong had 28.5% votes, sooner than 2019 Cong has 19.6% votes,” Kumar tweeted.

The Congress get collectively constructive has its job decrease out. Inside the BJP gained 207 parliamentary constituencies with a margin successfully over one lakh votes (see area 1). The Congress was routed. The get collectively endured a 9.03 per cent harmful swing, misplaced 162 MPs – from 206 MPs throughout the 15th Lok Sabha to easily 44 MPs throughout the 16th Lok Sabha – and its vote share was decreased to a measly 19.6 per cent.

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Will a 4 share stage enhance in vote share suffice then? Consistent with Kumar even when the get collectively pulls off about 7 per cent enhance in its vote share the Congress is unlikely to win over 100 seats throughout the 2019 widespread elections.

There is not a “Modi wave” — might be the one silver lining for the opposition occasions. Most surveys predict profit BJP-led Nationwide Democratic Alliance, nonetheless add a rider that the alliance would possibly merely fall wanting a majority.

Though Cases Now – VMR latest survey elements at an in depth contest between the NDA and the UPA, predicts Congress-led UPA will finish a distant second.

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Consistent with the survey NDA will get 2.6 per cent further votes than in 2014 nonetheless the alliance will lose 57 seats and can in all probability be decreased to slender majority with 279 MPs throughout the 17th Lok Sabha. The UPA with 30.7 per cent vote share, as per the poll, might be going in order so as to add 89 MPs to its 2014’s tally and take 149 seats (see Subject 2).

The outcomes for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections will in all probability be declared on May 23, the jury is out till then!

(Vijay Krishna might be contacted at vijay.okay@ians.in)

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